Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit $95 in September?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenuePolymarket

Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake

Polymarket43¢ → 100¢

Our position · NO57¢ → 0¢

Signal endedSep 9

Forecast updated

Aug 31 forecast

WTI enters September well below the threshold as supply relief looms, so a September $95 print is a meaningful underdog.

The visible evidence leans against a $95 print: WTI enters September below the threshold, while additional OPEC+ supply, record U.S. production and eventual Hormuz reopening could restrain prices. Yet renewed U.S.-Iran strikes, severely depressed shipping traffic and tight global inventories leave substantial upside risk. The full September window and one-minute-candle rule also allow a brief geopolitical spike to qualify even if prices quickly retreat.

Points to NO

WTI begins the window well below the $95 threshold.
WTI's August 31, 2026 session high was $86.79 per barrel.
More OPEC+ production should add supply during September.
OPEC+ approved a 188,000-barrel-per-day production increase for September 2026 on August 25.
Expected recovery in Hormuz flows points toward lower oil prices later in the year.
On August 11, 2026, the EIA forecast that oil prices would begin falling as Hormuz traffic increased and shut-in production restarted.

Points to YES

Direct U.S.-Iran fighting has resumed around the Strait of Hormuz.
On August 30–31, 2026, the United States attacked Iranian facilities on Larak Island and Iran retaliated with missiles against two U.S. bases in Jordan.
Severely restricted Hormuz traffic leaves oil prices exposed to further supply disruption.
Commercial vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz on August 27, 2026 was just under 10% of normal prewar levels.
A large global supply deficit and depleted inventories amplify the price effect of fresh disruptions.
On August 12, 2026, the IEA projected a global oil-market deficit of 1.8 million barrels per day in the third quarter.

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