Will the Republican Party win the AL-02 House seat?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenuePolymarket

Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake

Polymarket56¢ → 0¢

Our position · YES56¢ → 0¢

Signal endedNov 4

Forecast updated

Oct 28 forecast

YES: Q 67.6% · Market odds 66% at forecast

Redistricting. Redrawn district lines would have given Donald Trump a 14-point edge in 2024.

Main caution: Shomari Figures' cash advantage could fund a late advertising surge that narrows the gap.

Evidence and updates

Race ratings. Sabato's Crystal Ball still rates Alabama's 2nd District as leaning Republican after the redraw.

Recent polling. The latest public poll put Rhett Marques ahead of Shomari Figures by less than a point.

Q updated; quotes are not comparable. Q +4.0 pts since the previous forecast, for YES.

The research packet changed.

Snapshot: 2026-10-28T13:26:40.349226+00:00 · 2026-10-28T13:22:00+00:00.

Ask Q: Do early and absentee turnout figures from Montgomery County show Black turnout running at the level Shomari Figures needs to overcome the district's Republican lean?

Redistricting

Alabama Daily News reported that Trump would have won the area by 14 points in 2024 under the new district lines.

Race ratings

District 2 is currently considered "Leans Republican" by Sabato's Crystal Ball.

Recent polling

Scrutinel's forecast listed the most recent poll in its window as August 31, 2026, with Democrat 46.1% and Republican 47.0%.

Main caution

Figures brought in more than $1 million and had more than $1.3 million on hand.

Points to YES

Alabama's new district lines would have delivered the seat to Donald Trump by 14 points in 2024, and Shomari Figures is an underdog under the redrawn map.
Alabama Daily News reported on Oct. 8, 2026 that Trump would have won the area by 14 points in 2024 under the new district lines.
Race raters still place Alabama's 2nd District in Republican hands, even though Cook Political Report moved the contest to Lean Republican on Oct. 23.
Cook Political Report shifted the race from Likely Republican to Lean Republican on Oct. 23, 2026, while other raters described the district as close to a tossup.

Points to NO

Shomari Figures holds a large cash advantage, raising more than $1 million last quarter against Rhett Marques' $317,000.
Figures brought in more than $1 million in the most recent quarter and reported more than $1.3 million on hand as of Oct. 16, 2026.
Heavy turnout among Black voters in Montgomery County gives Shomari Figures a route, with the county capable of supplying as much as 40 percent of the vote.
Alabama Daily News reported on Oct. 5, 2026 that Montgomery County could account for as much as 40 percent of the electorate if turnout is strong.

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