Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.2% for the year ending in August 2026?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution+19%$100 paper stake

Kalshi84¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES84¢ → 100¢

Signal endedSep 11

Forecast updated

Sep 1 forecast

The latest nowcast places August annual CPI above the threshold, so inflation exceeding 3.2% is highly likely.

Annual CPI was already 3.4% in July, while the Cleveland Fed’s latest estimate places August at 3.38% and rising gasoline prices add upward pressure. TD Securities’ much lower projection is a direct warning that the August reading could surprise sharply, but the official starting point and current high-frequency indicators support a reading above 3.2%.

Points to YES

The Cleveland Fed’s latest estimate places August annual CPI above the resolution threshold.
On September 1, 2026, the Cleveland Fed estimated August CPI inflation at 3.38% year over year and 0.36% month over month.
Annual CPI entered August already above the threshold.
On August 12, 2026, the reported all-items CPI increase for the 12 months ending July was 3.4%.
Late-August gasoline prices create additional upward pressure on the monthly inflation reading.
On August 26, 2026, national average gasoline prices had risen to $4.10 per gallon and were expected to lift reported August inflation.

Points to NO

A major private forecast calls for annual inflation to fall well below the threshold.
On August 19, 2026, TD Securities projected August headline CPI inflation of 2.6% year over year.

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