US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 11?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenuePolymarket

Realized · held to resolution+79%$100 paper stake

Polymarket56¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES56¢ → 100¢

Signal endedSep 15

Forecast updated

Sep 6 forecast

Many military exchanges fall outside the narrow strike definition, so a qualifying 14-day U.S. strike pause beginning by September 11 is favored.

The visible evidence leans against a pause: direct U.S. strikes resumed, Iran retaliated, and both sides issued escalation threats. Even so, the resolution test is narrower than an end to hostilities because naval actions, interceptions, threats, and several other uses of force do not reset the clock unless a covered U.S. munition directly impacts Iran. Reported preparations for high-level talks and apparent reluctance to return to full-scale war leave room for conflict to remain contained or shift into excluded forms. A qualifying 14-day U.S. strike pause is therefore favored.

Points to YES

The narrow resolution rules allow hostilities to continue without resetting the strike-free period.
As of September 6, the rules exclude naval gunfire, intercepted munitions, cyber operations, ground incursions, threats, and strikes that do not directly impact Iranian territory or internal waters.
The latest reported U.S. tanker attacks may not have reset the clock because their locations were described as offshore.
On September 5, U.S. forces reported attacks on Iranian tankers off Kharg Island, near Jask, and in the Gulf of Oman.
New diplomatic activity offers a plausible off-ramp before another direct U.S. strike.
On September 6, a report said the United States and Iran were preparing for high-level negotiations in Islamabad the following Saturday.

Points to NO

Recent direct U.S. strikes show that Washington remains willing to attack targets inside Iran.
On September 1, U.S. Central Command said American forces struck air defenses, radar systems, maritime assets, mine-laying capabilities, and communications sites in Iran.
The conflict has returned to a retaliatory cycle with few established diplomatic restraints.
As of September 6, fighting had continued through the week with multiple U.S. strikes on Iranian targets and Iranian retaliation against U.S. targets in the region.

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