Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 90.49 USD/Bbl on Sep 3, 2026?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution+79%$100 paper stake

Kalshi56¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES56¢ → 100¢

Signal endedSep 3

Forecast updated

Sep 2 forecast

October WTI settled at $91.01 one day before resolution, so a September 3 settlement above $90.49 is likely.

October WTI enters the final session above the threshold after two strong settlements and a much larger-than-expected inventory draw. Recovering Persian Gulf exports and record U.S. production limit further upside, while the current $90.6066 price leaves little protection against a sharp reversal. Even with that substantial intraday risk, a settlement above $90.49 is likely.

Points to YES

October WTI’s latest settlement stands above the required threshold, providing a modest starting cushion.
On September 2, the October 2026 WTI contract settled at $91.01 per barrel, up $0.79 for the day.
A surprisingly large U.S. inventory draw supports near-term crude prices.
Reported on September 2, U.S. commercial crude inventories fell by 4.45 million barrels in the week ending August 28, versus an expected 1.1 million-barrel draw.
Recent conflict-driven momentum has pushed WTI rapidly through the settlement threshold.
On September 1, WTI settled at $90.22 per barrel after rising $4.46 following renewed military strikes between the United States and Iran.

Points to NO

Recovering Persian Gulf exports reduce the scarcity premium supporting oil prices.
On September 2, Brown Brothers Harriman strategists said Persian Gulf oil exports were recovering toward two-thirds of pre-war levels and that further oil-price upside appeared limited.
Record U.S. production provides a strong supply offset to geopolitical disruptions.
Reported on September 2, U.S. crude production matched a record 13.862 million barrels per day in the week ending August 28.

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