Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenuePolymarket

Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake

Polymarket60¢ → 0¢

Our position · YES60¢ → 0¢

Signal endedOct 26

Forecast updated

Sep 23 forecast

United Serbia leads the newest supplied poll by a wide margin, so its list winning the most National Assembly seats is likely.

The newest direct poll places United Serbia clearly first, and the incumbent bloc is retaining its core electorate. The Student List has momentum, new allies and support from an alternative analytical scenario that places it ahead, making the evidence less one-sided than the latest poll suggests. Overall, United Serbia winning the most seats is likely with meaningful uncertainty because opposition consolidation and turnout could still reshape the final month.

Points to YES

United Serbia holds a large lead in the newest supplied election poll.
A survey conducted September 16–20 measured United Serbia at 48.6% and the Student List at 37.1%.
SNS appears to be retaining the electorate needed to keep United Serbia in first place.
On September 21, Vladimir Peic assessed that SNS was successfully retaining its electorate.
The incumbent bloc recently demonstrated that it can convert national support into a parliamentary majority.
In the December 2023 parliamentary election, the SNS-led Serbia Must Not Stop alliance won a majority of National Assembly seats.

Points to NO

A detailed alternative scenario places the Student List well ahead of United Serbia.
On August 31, BIRODI’s central scenario assigned 48.5% to the Student List and 38.6% to the SNS–Vučić list, while stressing that this was not a final-result forecast.
Opposition consolidation is strengthening the Student List’s challenge.
On September 22, the People’s Serbia coalition withdrew its electoral list to support the Student List.

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