Will AfD win the second-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenuePolymarket

Realized · held to resolution+72%$100 paper stake

Polymarket42¢ → 0¢

Our position · NO58¢ → 100¢

Signal endedSep 21

Forecast updated

Sep 17 forecast

AfD holds a consistent polling lead over the SPD in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, so an AfD second-place finish is unlikely.

AfD has led the SPD in every credible poll since August, with margins from 2 to 9 points. Markets currently view an AfD second-place finish as a real possibility, yet the consistent polling dominance of the AfD makes a second-place result less likely than those market odds imply, with the key gap being the difficulty for the SPD to erase a persistent deficit in the final days. The narrowest gap (2 points in the final INSA poll) leaves a theoretical path for an SPD overtake, but the odds remain low given the consistency of the AfD lead across multiple pollsters.

Points to NO

AfD leads SPD by 2 points in final INSA poll, confirming sustained advantage.
INSA poll published 16 Sep 2026 shows AfD 37%, SPD 35%.
ZDF Politbarometer shows AfD ahead by 3 points, reinforcing the trend.
ZDF Politbarometer Extra from early Sep 2026 shows AfD 37%, SPD 34%.
Forsa poll indicates a 9-point AfD lead, the widest margin of recent surveys.
Forsa poll from late Aug 2026 shows AfD 37%, SPD 28%.

Points to YES

Narrow gap in final INSA poll keeps a second-place finish within the margin of error.
INSA poll 16 Sep 2026 shows a 2-point gap, within typical margin of error.

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