Will Bitcoin be at or above $77,000 on Sep 11?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution+35%$100 paper stake

Kalshi74¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES74¢ → 100¢

Signal endedSep 11

Forecast updated

Sep 9 forecast

Bitcoin has a modest cushion above the strike and rebounded strongly from nearby support, so a price of at least $77,000 at settlement is likely.

Bitcoin’s settlement-basis price is $79,525.87, about 3.2% above the threshold with just over two days remaining. The rebound from below $78,000 and strong spot-fund inflows support a finish at or above $77,000. However, repeated resistance near $80,000, bearish short-term signals, and volatile macro conditions make a sharp test of support plausible. A settlement of at least $77,000 is likely, with meaningful uncertainty because the cushion is small relative to Bitcoin’s near-term volatility.

Points to YES

Bitcoin currently has a modest buffer above the settlement threshold.
On September 9, the settlement-basis price was $79,525.87, about 3.2% above $77,000.
Buyers have defended the area immediately above the threshold.
On September 9, Bitcoin rebounded from $77,638 to above $79,000, while $77,100 was identified as an area attracting new demand.
Strong spot Bitcoin ETF inflows provide evidence of active underlying demand.
By September 9, U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs had attracted US$1.01 billion of net inflows over three trading sessions.

Points to NO

Short-term price action remains constrained below an important dividing area.
On September 9, Bitcoin was quoted at 79,182 USDT while the $79,500–$79,600 area was identified as the short-term dividing zone between bulls and bears.
Risk-sensitive assets face pressure from elevated oil prices and bond yields.
On September 9, Brent crude reached $100.95 and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield traded at 4.808%.

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