Jenson Brooksby46 vs. Nikoloz Basilashvili won67

ATPFinal24h volume $561k

Market price

Sep 26 forecast

Brooksby’s stronger ranking and Chengdu wins over Baez and Sonego outweigh Basilashvili’s streak, so Basilashvili advancing is a meaningful underdog outcome.

Basilashvili has won four Chengdu matches without dropping a set, including an upset of fourth seed Botic van de Zandschulp. Brooksby, however, has beaten Sebastian Baez and Lorenzo Sonego, holds the stronger recent ranking and won their latest meeting comfortably. Brooksby is therefore more likely to advance, although Basilashvili’s clean run and hard-court head-to-head lead keep him a meaningful underdog.

Points to Brooksby

Brooksby arrives with credible wins over Sebastian Baez and Lorenzo Sonego in Chengdu.
On September 25, Brooksby defeated Sonego 5-7, 7-5, 6-2 to reach the quarterfinals.
Brooksby dominated the pair’s most recent meeting.
On March 26, 2022, Brooksby defeated Basilashvili 6-3, 6-1 at the Miami Masters.
Basilashvili entered the tournament well below his former peak ranking.
On September 25, Basilashvili entered his match against Van de Zandschulp ranked No. 145.

Points to Basilashvili

Basilashvili has produced the cleaner tournament run, winning four matches without losing a set.
By September 25, Basilashvili had reached the quarterfinal after four straight-set victories in Chengdu.
Basilashvili leads their completed ATP main-draw series on hard courts.
As recorded on July 24, 2026, Basilashvili led Brooksby 2-1 across three ATP main-draw meetings, all on hard courts.
Brooksby faces a short recovery after a physically demanding three-set match.
On September 25, Brooksby’s victory over Sonego lasted two hours and 36 minutes.

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