Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenuePolymarket

Realized · held to resolution+56%$100 paper stake

Polymarket36¢ → 0¢

Our position · NO64¢ → 100¢

Signal endedNov 4

Forecast updated

Oct 30 forecast

NO: Q 73.8% · Market odds 67.5% at forecast

Polling average. Byron Donalds leads David Jolly by about five points in the latest polling average.

Main caution: David Jolly leads Floridians who already cast ballots by a wide 58% to 38% margin.

Evidence and updates

Registration edge. Republicans hold a Florida voter-registration edge of roughly 1.5 million voters over Democrats.

Campaign money. Byron Donalds and his committee have raised about 6.5 times David Jolly's campaign total.

Q updated; quotes are not comparable. Q −17.3 pts since the previous forecast, for NO.

The research packet changed.

Snapshot: 2026-10-30T13:50:17.247724+00:00 · 2026-10-30T13:46:00+00:00.

Ask Q: Whether Florida's final early-vote and mail totals by party, reported through the Oct. 31 close of early voting, show Democrats narrowing the gap below the 2022 level and how unaffiliated turnout compares.

Polling average

Decision Desk HQ's polling average dated Oct. 28 showed Byron Donalds at 48.90% and David Jolly at 43.70%, a Donalds lead of 5.2 points.

Registration edge

Republicans held a Florida voter-registration advantage of roughly 1.5 million voters, nearly 5.69 million to almost 4.15 million, at the Oct. 5 book closing.

Campaign money

Byron Donalds and his political committee raised nearly $168 million, about 6.5 times the Jolly campaign's roughly $26 million.

Main caution

David Jolly led Floridians who had already voted 58% to 38% in the final St. Pete Polls survey.

Points to NO

Byron Donalds leads the polling averages and every recent statewide survey, leaving David Jolly a gap to close in the final week.
Decision Desk HQ's Oct. 28 polling average showed Byron Donalds at 48.9% and David Jolly at 43.7%, a lead of 5.2 points.
Florida's Republican registration advantage of roughly 1.5 million voters gives Byron Donalds a large structural turnout cushion.
Republicans held nearly 5.69 million registered voters to almost 4.15 million for Democrats at Florida's Oct. 5 book closing.
Byron Donalds holds a spending and field advantage several times larger than David Jolly's operation in the closing stretch.
Byron Donalds and his political committee raised nearly $168 million, about 6.5 times the Jolly campaign's roughly $26 million, and knocked on more than two million doors.

Points to YES

Democrats have nearly closed the early-vote gap that hobbled the party in the last midterm, keeping David Jolly within reach.
As of Oct. 27, Republicans led Democrats by about 12,766 ballots cast out of 3.15 million, versus a roughly 177,000 gap at the same point in 2022.
David Jolly wins independents by a wide margin and pulls more Republican crossover votes than Byron Donalds pulls Democrats.
A University of North Florida poll found David Jolly leading unaffiliated voters 55% to 38% and taking 11% of Republican voters while Byron Donalds took 5% of Democrats.

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