Will above 70000 jobs be added in September 2026?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake

Kalshi64¢ → 0¢

Our position · YES64¢ → 0¢

Signal endedOct 2

Forecast updated

Most mainstream estimates exceed the threshold, so a September U.S. nonfarm payroll gain above 70,000 is likely.

Economist surveys and several labor indicators point to a September gain near or above 90,000, providing a cushion over the threshold. ADP reported stronger private hiring, while business surveys showed employment accelerating and unemployment claims remained low. However, Revelio Labs and several named economists estimated only 50,000 to 60,000 jobs, and recent payroll growth has generally been weak. ADP’s poor historical alignment with the official measure also limits its value. On balance, the broader set of estimates supports an above-threshold result, although the conflicting late evidence leaves meaningful uncertainty and substantial scope for a sharp surprise.

Points to YES

Major economist surveys place September payroll growth comfortably above the threshold.
On September 30, 2026, a Reuters survey expected total nonfarm payrolls to advance by 90,000 in September.
Private-sector employment data indicate that hiring strengthened in September.
On September 30, 2026, ADP reported that private-sector employment increased by 90,000 and accelerated for the first time since May.
Business surveys show unusually broad hiring momentum across factories and services.
On September 24, 2026, S&P Global’s flash survey found hiring across factories and services rising at its fastest pace since June 2022.

Points to NO

A real-time employment tracker places September job growth below the required threshold.
On October 1, 2026, Revelio Labs reported that the U.S. economy added 56,900 jobs in September.
The labor market entered September with a weak underlying payroll trend.
On September 4, 2026, BLS reported that monthly nonfarm payroll gains averaged 31,000 over the preceding 12 months.

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