New England Patriots won29vs.Buffalo Bills26

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Oct 3 forecast

New England’s defense and recent success in Buffalo offset the Bills’ fast start, so a Bills victory is less likely than not.

The visible evidence favors Buffalo: its offense has been far more productive, Josh Allen appears healthy, and New England’s offense has struggled badly. Still, those results cover only three games, while the Patriots have fielded a strong defense, won in Buffalo last season, and split the series in each of the past three seasons. Those matchup checks make a Patriots victory more likely, although a Bills win remains a real possibility.

Points to Patriots

New England’s defense has played well enough to keep Buffalo below its early scoring pace.
Through three games as of September 30, New England ranked fifth in total defense, second in pass defense and sixth in points allowed.
Recent rivalry results show New England can win in Buffalo despite broader team-strength differences.
The Patriots won 23-20 at Buffalo on October 5, 2025, and the teams split their season series in each of the three preceding seasons.

Points to Bills

Buffalo brings a major production advantage on offense, particularly in scoring and rushing.
Through September 30, 2026, Buffalo averaged 33.7 points and 401.7 yards per game, while New England averaged 12.0 points and 307.0 yards.
Buffalo’s pass rush presents a difficult matchup for an error-prone New England offense.
As of September 30, Buffalo ranked sixth with nine sacks, while New England ranked 28th in sacks allowed per play and Drake Maye had committed seven turnovers.
Josh Allen’s knee concern appeared to ease before the matchup.
On September 30, 2026, Allen participated in practice and was reported to be moving without issue after taking a hit to his left knee in Week 3.

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