Will Bitcoin be at or above $78,750 on Aug 27?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution+92%$100 paper stake

Kalshi52¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES52¢ → 100¢

Signal endedAug 27

Forecast updatedAug 27

Aug 26 forecast

Bitcoin is hovering around the cutoff after a powerful, fund-backed rally, so an August 27 price at or above $78,750 is favored.

The cutoff lies inside bitcoin’s current trading range, making small price moves decisive. Strong recent momentum, sustained fund inflows and broader spot and futures demand favor renewed upside. However, profit-taking after the rapid rally and repeated intraday moves below the cutoff leave substantial risk in both directions. An August 27 price at or above $78,750 is favored.

Points to YES

Bitcoin is already straddling the cutoff, so only a small upward move is needed for an above-threshold observation.
Late on August 26, the real-time BRTI value was $78,777.32, slightly above $78,750.
Large recent gains preserve upward momentum that can attract follow-through buying despite the latest pullback.
On August 26, bitcoin was reported near $79,000 after gaining 23% over seven days.
Persistent spot-fund inflows provide demand capable of absorbing sellers and supporting another move above the cutoff.
On August 25, U.S.-listed spot bitcoin funds recorded $314 million of net inflows, their seventh consecutive inflow session.

Points to NO

The cutoff sits within a wide intraday range, so an ordinary downswing could overturn an otherwise favorable setup.
On August 26, the BRTI traded between $77,631.35 and $79,233.40, crossing both below and above $78,750.
Profit-taking after the steep advance could extend the pullback and leave bitcoin below the cutoff at the relevant observation.
On August 26, bitcoin pulled back toward $78,500 while futures open interest declined, a combination characterized as position unwinding rather than aggressive new shorting.

Research and information only. Not financial advice or a recommendation to trade. Markets involve risk, including loss of capital. Review venue rules and eligibility before trading.