Will Bitcoin be at or above $77,000 on Sep 3?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution+43%$100 paper stake

Kalshi70¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES70¢ → 100¢

Signal endedSep 3

Forecast updated

Sep 3 forecast

Bitcoin is trading modestly above the strike with limited time remaining, so a September 3 price of at least $77,000 is likely.

Bitcoin is roughly $77,757, just under 1% above the threshold with little time left. That cushion makes an above-threshold settlement likely, but repeated dips below $77,000 over the past two days leave meaningful uncertainty and make a late adverse move the main risk.

Points to YES

Bitcoin is currently above the $77,000 threshold with only a narrow move required to remain there.
A September 3 record reported a Bitcoin-related value of $77,726.65, up 0.54% that day.
Bitcoin recovered above the threshold after the latest major selloff, showing buying support near the relevant level.
Bitcoin closed September 2 just above $77,200 after recovering to around $77,500 by 8 p.m. EST.
Recent institutional inflows provide underlying demand support, although they are less important than same-day price action.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $2.77 billion in net inflows between August 14 and September 1.

Points to NO

Bitcoin has already crossed below $77,000 today, demonstrating that the remaining cushion can disappear during ordinary intraday movement.
Bitcoin traded between $76,929.29 and $77,877.20 on September 3.
Recent downside volatility has been large enough to carry Bitcoin well below the threshold on short notice.
Bitcoin fell to a daily low of $76,229 on September 2.

Research and information only. Not financial advice or a recommendation to trade. Markets involve risk, including loss of capital. Review venue rules and eligibility before trading.