Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit $75 in September?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenuePolymarket

Realized · held to resolution+20%$100 paper stake

Polymarket17¢ → 0¢

Our position · NO83¢ → 100¢

Signal endedOct 1

Forecast updated

Sep 3 forecast

WTI is trading near recent highs as conflict constrains supply routes, so a September touch of $75 is a long shot.

WTI entered September around $90 and then settled above $91 after four consecutive gains, leaving $75 far below the active market. Fighting around Iran and reduced Strait of Hormuz traffic continue to support a supply-risk premium, while the latest U.S. inventory report showed a substantial crude draw. A bearish path remains open because transit can recover, U.S. production is high, and demand indicators are soft, but reaching the threshold requires an unusually abrupt reversal within the remaining month.

Points to NO

WTI began September with strong upward momentum and remains far above $75.
On September 3, front-month Nymex crude settled at $91.30 per barrel, its highest settlement since July 23 after four consecutive gains.
Severely reduced Strait of Hormuz traffic is sustaining concern about near-term oil availability.
Preliminary data for September 2 showed four commodity vessels crossing the strait, compared with a recent ten-day average of about thirteen.
Recent chart structure remains supportive, with buyers expected to defend pullbacks above key technical levels.
On September 3, Haresh Menghani assessed that WTI retained a bullish bias above the 100-day moving average at $85.10 and that dips were likely to be bought.

Points to YES

Recovering Gulf exports could remove part of the conflict premium if improved flows persist.
More than 17 million barrels flowed through the Strait of Hormuz on August 31, the highest daily crude-transit level since the Iran war reduced flows.
Weak U.S. consumption indicators could pressure crude if they persist alongside ample production.
Over the four weeks ending August 28, total U.S. petroleum products supplied averaged 20.4 million barrels per day, down 4% from a year earlier.
WTI traded below $75 recently, showing that the threshold is attainable during a sufficiently sharp reversal.
WTI recorded a daily low of $74.57 per barrel on August 6.

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