Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.0% in August?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

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Our position · YES77¢ → 100¢

Signal endedSep 4

Forecast updated

Sep 1 forecast

Major forecasts cluster at 4.1% or 4.2%, both above the cutoff, so an August U-3 rate above 4.0% is likely.

Major forecasters unanimously expect 4.1% or 4.2%, and July was already above the cutoff at 4.1%. The main uncertainty is that the forecast range reaches exactly 4.0%, which would fail the strict above-threshold test. With both consensus and recent official readings above the cutoff, an above-4.0% report is the more likely outcome.

Points to YES

The consensus forecast places August unemployment above the threshold at 4.1%.
On August 31, 2026, consensus forecasts projected the August U.S. unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 4.1%.
July unemployment was already above the threshold, limiting the change needed for a qualifying August reading.
The August 7, 2026, employment report showed that U.S. unemployment stood at 4.1% in July.
Some major forecasters expect rebounding participation to lift unemployment to 4.2%.
On August 31, 2026, Wells Fargo forecast that unemployment would rise from 4.1% to 4.2% as labor force participation began to normalize.

Points to NO

The forecast range extends down to exactly 4.0%, which would not clear the strict threshold.
On August 31, 2026, the surveyed August forecast range spanned 4.0% to 4.2%, with a 4.1% consensus.

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