Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

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Our position · YES42¢ → 0¢

Signal endedNov 4

Forecast updated

Oct 2 forecast

Collins’s strength with highly motivated older voters offsets Jackson’s polling edge.

The visible polling balance leans toward Jackson: he led most recent public surveys and held a small polling-average advantage on October 1. Collins nevertheless has a credible path through highly motivated older voters, rural turnout, crossover support and a demonstrated ability to outrun Maine polling. Recent surveys also include narrow Collins leads, leaving the race about even with Collins holding the slightest edge.

Points to NO

Jackson retains a small overall polling advantage entering the final month.
The October 1 Decision Desk HQ polling average placed Jackson at 48.6% and Collins at 47.2%.
Strong dissatisfaction with Trump creates a difficult statewide environment for the Republican nominee.
The September 20–22 AARP poll found 64% of likely Maine voters viewed Trump unfavorably and 37% favorably.

Points to YES

Collins holds a potentially decisive advantage among Maine’s highly motivated older voters.
The September 20–22 AARP poll found voters age 50 and older favored Collins 53% to 44%, and this group reported greater motivation than younger voters.
Collins has previously defeated a polling consensus that underestimated her support.
Collins won reelection in 2020 by 8.6 percentage points despite trailing in public polling during that campaign.
Collins is attracting more voters from across the presidential partisan divide than Jackson.
The September 15–22 Siena poll found Collins winning 12% of 2024 Harris voters, while Jackson won 3% of Trump voters.

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