Will the Bank of Russia Maintain current rate at the September Bank of Russia Board of Directors’ key rate meeting?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution+67%$100 paper stake

Kalshi60¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES60¢ → 100¢

Signal endedSep 11

Forecast updated

Sep 2 forecast

Persistent inflation pressure and reduced room for easing favor a pause, so a September Bank of Russia rate hold is likely.

Current evidence leans toward a pause. Persistent inflation has stopped declining, fiscal demand is stronger than anticipated, and credit growth and supply shocks constrain further easing. Stagnant growth and the long easing sequence leave a small cut plausible, but holding the key rate unchanged is more likely.

Points to YES

Persistent inflation has stopped improving, strengthening the case for a pause.
On September 2, Sergey Konygin said the persistent component of inflation had stopped declining.
Stronger fiscal demand leaves less room for monetary easing.
On August 31, the Bank of Russia said a stronger-than-anticipated fiscal impulse implied less room for monetary-policy easing.
The Bank has already replaced its moderately soft policy signal with a neutral one.
At its July 24 meeting, the Bank of Russia changed its policy signal from moderately soft to neutral.

Points to NO

Ten consecutive easing decisions establish substantial momentum toward another cut.
The July 24 key-rate reduction was the Bank of Russia's tenth consecutive easing decision.
Weak economic growth continues to create pressure for lower rates.
In a survey conducted from August 28 through September 1, analysts lowered their Russian GDP-growth forecast for 2026 from 0.6% to 0.5%.

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