New England Patriots6vs.Jacksonville Jaguars won35

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Sep 26 forecast

Jacksonville has won five straight home games with dominant margins, so a Jaguars victory over the Patriots is favored.

The evidence is mixed because New England brings an excellent defense and a dangerous pressure matchup. Jacksonville’s sustained home dominance, stronger scoring and cleaner quarterback play nevertheless make a Jaguars victory favored.

Points to Jaguars

Jacksonville has established a powerful home-field advantage.
As of September 25, 2026, Jacksonville had won five consecutive regular-season home games while setting franchise records for points, touchdowns and point differential across that span.
Jacksonville has received much safer quarterback play early this season.
Through September 20, 2026, Trevor Lawrence had four touchdown passes and one interception, while Drake Maye had one touchdown pass and four interceptions.
Jacksonville has produced substantially more scoring than New England.
Through September 20, 2026, Jacksonville averaged 23.5 points per game, compared with 15.0 for New England.

Points to Patriots

New England’s defense has been one of the NFL’s strongest units.
After two games, the Patriots ranked first in points allowed per drive, third in defensive EPA per play and fourth in yards allowed per play.
New England’s pressure packages directly target Lawrence’s main weakness.
Through September 20, 2026, Lawrence had completed only 35.3 percent of his passes under pressure, while New England had generated 18 pressures and four sacks in its latest game.

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