Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Oct 28, 2026 meeting?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake

Kalshi70¢ → 0¢

Our position · YES70¢ → 0¢

Signal endedOct 28

Forecast updated

Sep 29 forecast

Persistent inflation and the unanimous September hike sustain tightening momentum, so an upper bound above 4.00% after the October meeting is likely.

An unchanged decision would leave the upper bound at 4.00%, so the outcome requires another increase. The clearest contrary evidence is that most major brokerages expected the next increase in December rather than October. Still, consecutive rate moves have been common, inflation remains elevated, and most policymakers indicated that further tightening would be needed this year. Those considerations make an October increase likely, while leaving meaningful timing uncertainty.

Points to YES

The unanimous September increase established strong momentum for continued tightening.
On September 16, the Fed raised its target range to 3.75%-4.00% by a 12-0 vote.
Broadening price pressure gives policymakers reason to act again without waiting until December.
On September 28, Lisa Cook said productivity gains would not arrive soon enough to offset broadening inflationary pressure later in 2026.
Recent rate changes have usually continued in the same direction, supporting another increase after September’s move.
A September 28 analysis found that 52 of 59 successive federal funds target changes since 2003 moved in the same direction as the preceding change.

Points to NO

Professional forecasts have generally placed the next increase in December rather than October.
On September 17, Reuters reported that most major brokerages expected one more Fed increase in 2026, likely in December.
Some recent inflation readings support patience rather than another immediate increase.
On September 28, Kevin Hassett said three-month annualized inflation readings were around the Fed’s target.

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