Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit China?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenuePolymarket

Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake

Polymarket68¢ → 100¢

Our position · NO32¢ → 0¢

Signal endedAug 9

Forecast updated

Aug 1 forecast

Dolphin probably did not hit China by Aug 15, since JMA best-track data and news silence indicate it turned north then went extratropical east of Japan without crossing the coast, though an unreported fix remains genuinely possible.

All available records point away from a Chinese landfall. The storm reached super-typhoon intensity in late July, then tracked north and northeast, becoming extratropical east of Japan on Aug 18 with no Chinese landfall in JMA best-track data. No news reports confirm a hidden crossing, and the Aug 1-15 advisory gap is covered by the integrated best-track, which lists none. Resolution rules require a JMA advisory plot or credible news by Aug 15—neither exists—so a strike is genuinely possible but unsupported, favoring No.

Points to NO

JMA best-track lists Dolphin becoming extratropical on Aug 18 near 23.4N 140.5E and dissipating Aug 19 near 24.1N 141.5E, with no Chinese landfall shown.
Evidence
No credible news source through Aug 1 reports Dolphin hitting China, despite active coverage of other typhoons (Noul, Bavi, Hongxia) that did make landfall.
Evidence
Forecast discussions through July 30-31 mentioned possible Zhejiang or north-coast paths, but by Aug 1 the trajectory had clearly shifted away from China's coast toward Japan and the north Pacific.
Evidence

Research and information only. Not financial advice or a recommendation to trade. Markets involve risk, including loss of capital. Review venue rules and eligibility before trading.