Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 85.99 USD/Bbl on Aug 31, 2026?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake

Kalshi38¢ → 0¢

Our position · YES38¢ → 0¢

Signal endedAug 31

Forecast updated

Aug 31 forecast

October WTI is trading just above the threshold with hours remaining, so an August 31 settlement above $85.99/Bbl is favored.

The settlement-basis price is $86.0776, barely above the threshold with 6.1 hours remaining. Severe disruption around the Strait of Hormuz supports crude, but recovering exports and today's wide trading range leave ample room for reversal. Because CME uses trading during a designated afternoon window rather than the latest quote, an August 31 settlement above $85.99/Bbl is favored.

Points to YES

October WTI has traded above the settlement threshold today.
On August 31, CNBC displayed delayed October 2026 WTI at $86.50/Bbl and an intraday high of $86.58/Bbl.
Fresh military escalation in the Strait of Hormuz is sustaining an oil supply-risk premium.
On August 31, crude prices spiked after reports of missile launches and a supertanker fire attributed to naval mines in the Strait of Hormuz.
Strait of Hormuz traffic remains severely constrained relative to normal conditions.
On August 27, commercial traffic through the strait totaled 12 vessels, just under 10% of normal pre-war traffic.

Points to NO

Today's wide trading range shows the narrow cushion can disappear quickly.
On August 31, WTI traded as high as $86.58/Bbl and as low as $84.11/Bbl before standing at $86.47/Bbl.
Recovering Persian Gulf exports limit further upside pressure on crude.
On August 31, Goldman Sachs estimated Persian Gulf oil exports had recovered to around two-thirds of pre-war levels as more vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz.
WTI entered the final session after closing materially below the threshold.
On August 28, the WTI historical table recorded a close of $83.40/Bbl.

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