Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 82.99 USD/Bbl on Aug 28, 2026?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution+163%$100 paper stake

Kalshi38¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES38¢ → 100¢

Signal endedAug 28

Forecast updated

Aug 28 forecast

Late-morning WTI remained modestly above the cutoff despite wide swings, so an October-contract settlement above the threshold is favored.

The relevant October contract recovered above the cutoff after Thursday’s stronger settlement and remained there in late-morning trading. The cushion is thin, however: Friday’s range extended well below the threshold, and reports of improving supply prospects pressured prices. Persistent disruption and a projected supply deficit provide support, making an above-threshold settlement the more likely outcome while leaving substantial room for a late reversal.

Points to YES

Late-morning trading above the cutoff gives the October contract a modest cushion heading toward settlement, raising the chance of an above-threshold close.
On August 28, the Financial Times recorded WTI at $83.09 as of 10:51 BST.
Thursday’s settlement above the threshold shows the contract recently sustained a higher closing level, supporting another above-threshold settlement.
On August 27, NYMEX October WTI settled at $83.53 per barrel, up $1.30.
A projected global supply deficit linked to continuing Hormuz disruptions supports elevated crude prices and raises the chance that buyers defend the cutoff.
On August 12, the IEA projected falling global oil supply and a third-quarter deficit caused by ongoing Strait of Hormuz disruptions.

Points to NO

Friday’s wide range crossed substantially below the cutoff, showing that ordinary intraday volatility could still pull the settlement under the threshold.
On August 28, WTI traded between $82.54 and $83.78 during the session.
Improving supply expectations through the Strait of Hormuz could encourage additional selling before the close, lowering the chance of an above-threshold settlement.
On August 28, WTI traded around $82.70 during Asian hours amid reports of improved supply prospects through the Strait of Hormuz.

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