Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 88.99 USD/Bbl on Sep 3, 2026?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution+22%$100 paper stake

Kalshi82¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES82¢ → 100¢

Signal endedSep 3

Forecast updated

Sep 3 forecast

October WTI remains above $88.99 after a powerful three-session rally, so an above-threshold September 3 settlement is highly likely.

With only hours remaining, October WTI trades near $90.38, above the $88.99 threshold, after settling at $91.01 on September 2. De-escalation and recovering Gulf exports could cause a sharp reversal, but the remaining cushion and persistent shipping disruption make an above-threshold settlement highly likely.

Points to YES

October WTI entered settlement day with a meaningful cushion above $88.99.
On September 3, WTI was trading at $90.88 per barrel around 7:30 a.m. IST.
Strong recent momentum supports keeping the contract above the threshold.
The October NYMEX crude contract settled at $91.01 per barrel on September 2 after rising for three consecutive sessions.
Severely restricted Strait of Hormuz traffic continues to support a supply-risk premium.
On September 1, Strait of Hormuz vessel traffic fell to four transits from 13 on August 31.

Points to NO

Signs of easing U.S.-Iran tensions are already pressuring oil prices.
On September 3, oil prices retreated amid tentative indications that the latest U.S.-Iran flare-up was easing.
Recovering Persian Gulf exports limit further upside and create reversal risk.
On September 2, Goldman Sachs estimated that Persian Gulf oil flows had recovered to roughly two-thirds of their pre-war level.
Recent intraday volatility shows the contract can still cross the threshold quickly.
On September 2, WTI traded between $88.97 and $92.29 per barrel, spanning both sides of $88.99.

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