Will there be more than 23 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Oct 26, 2026 to Nov 1, 2026?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake

Kalshi80¢ → 100¢

Our position · NO20¢ → 0¢

Signal endedNov 7

Forecast updated

Oct 31 forecast

NO: Q 58.5% · Market odds 48.5% at forecast

Recent counts. IMF PortWatch counted 23 Hormuz transits in the seven days before the window opened.

Main caution: Other trackers count far more Hormuz vessels than PortWatch, so revisions could lift the total above 23.

Evidence and updates

Traffic level. UKMTO reported Hormuz ship traffic still running 70% below its prewar level on October 30.

Security risk. Four oil tankers struck mines and caught fire in the Strait of Hormuz on October 30.

Snapshot: 2026-10-31T14:12:15.096316+00:00 · Quote: kalshi-market-v2:midpoint · 2026-10-31T14:03:37.452488+00:00.

Ask Q: Will the IMF PortWatch release covering October 26 through November 1 show upward revisions in the newest days, closing the gap toward the 30-plus daily transits INTERTANKO reports?

Recent counts

The IMF PortWatch daily totals listed for October 19 through October 25 were respectively 4, 3, 3, 4, 5, 2 and 2 transits.

Traffic level

On October 30, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations Center reported that Strait of Hormuz ship traffic remained 70% below its prewar level.

Security risk

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said on October 30 that four oil tankers hit mines and caught fire while traveling through the Strait of Hormuz.

Main caution

INTERTANKO reported on October 26 that vessels continued using the southern US-facilitated route through the Strait of Hormuz and that daily transits averaged more than 30 ships.
S&P Global Commodities at Sea reported 17 total Hormuz ships on each of October 24 and October 25, a materially different reading from the supplied IMF PortWatch series.

Points to NO

IMF PortWatch logged 23 two-way transits in the seven days through October 25, an average of 3.3 a day that falls short of the pace needed to clear 23 calls inside the window.
PortWatch daily totals for October 19 through October 25 were 4, 3, 3, 4, 5, 2 and 2 transits, with a trailing seven-day average of 3.3.
Mining and attack incidents inside the strait on October 30 keep owners, insurers and crews cautious and hold physical transits down.
Iran's Revolutionary Guard said on October 30 that four oil tankers hit mines and caught fire while transiting the Strait of Hormuz.

Points to YES

Independent trackers count far more Hormuz movements than PortWatch, so the low resolving series may understate actual traffic in the strait.
INTERTANKO reported on October 26 that daily transits on the southern US-facilitated Hormuz route averaged more than 30 ships.
The supplied weekly transit series cleared the threshold twice in early October, showing this measurement can produce 26 or more calls in a single week.
The supplied weekly transit dataset recorded 29 Hormuz calls for October 5 through October 11 and 26 calls for October 12 through October 18.

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