Will BTC trimmed mean be above $82500.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Aug 31, 2026?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution+54%$100 paper stake

Kalshi35¢ → 0¢

Our position · NO65¢ → 100¢

Signal endedSep 1

Forecast updated

Aug 26 forecast

Bitcoin has retreated after rejection at nearby resistance, so its trimmed mean exceeding $82,500 by the deadline is a meaningful underdog.

Bitcoin remains well below the threshold after a strong rally was rejected near $81,300. Recent readings below the threshold weigh on the cumulative calculation, while trimming limits the effect of a fleeting spike. ETF inflows and recent momentum keep a breakout possible, but sustained gains through heavy resistance are needed within a short window. That makes exceeding the threshold a meaningful underdog.

Points to NO

The latest benchmark level leaves a substantial gap that Bitcoin must close and sustain before the cumulative trimmed mean can exceed the threshold.
On August 26, 2026, the CME CF Bitcoin Real Time Index was $77,887.45, with an intraday range of $77,631.35 to $79,233.40.
Repeated rejection near $81,300 indicates overhead selling may block the sustained advance required before the deadline.
On August 25, 2026, Bitcoin reached roughly $81,255–$81,300 before retreating below $79,000, while the prior $82,830 swing high remained unbreached.
Below-threshold trading across successive sessions adds drag to the cumulative trimmed mean, making a brief late spike less effective than a broad, sustained rise.
August 25 trading reached $81.27K but closed at $78.53K, followed by an August 26 range of $77.60K to $79.24K.

Points to YES

Persistent spot ETF inflows provide fresh demand that could support another attempt to break resistance and hold higher prices.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $314 million of net inflows on August 25, 2026, their seventh consecutive inflow day and enough to lift August inflows above $3 billion.
The recent rapid rally shows Bitcoin can cover a large price gap quickly, preserving a live path to the threshold despite the latest pullback.
By August 25, 2026, Bitcoin had rallied 24% from August 17, although confirmation was said to require a close above roughly $83,000.

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