Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?

The Israel-Iran ceasefire will almost certainly hold through July 31 because both sides are channeling escalation into proxy and US-facing fronts rather than direct strikes.

The forecast relies on a strong observed-state anchor: no direct strikes in the first four days of a 12-day window, with regional conflict explicitly described as non-direct (E3). The reversible but qualified status supports high persistence. Memory cases are blended lightly (0.20) because they involve US-Iran dynamics or longer timelines rather than pure Israel-Iran direct-strike pauses. The dominant scenario (85%) is a clean hold; an additional 6% covers ambiguous incidents resolved non-qualifying per P3 and attribution patterns (E6). The remaining 9% is split across unilateral and mutual direct strikes, reflecting the durable structural risk of resumption but lacking any current trigger in the evidence packet.