Will the Republican Party win the NJ-02 House seat?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenuePolymarket

Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake

Polymarket60¢ → 0¢

Our position · YES60¢ → 0¢

Signal endedNov 6

Forecast updated

Nov 3 forecast

YES: Q 68% · Market odds 57% at forecast

Campaign cash. Van Drew holds roughly eight times more campaign cash than Democrat Zack Mullock.

Main caution: Democratic early ballots in New Jersey's 2nd District outnumber Republican ballots by a wide margin.

Evidence and updates

District lean. Trump carried New Jersey's 2nd District by double digits in 2024.

Race ratings. Cook Political Report rates New Jersey's 2nd District Likely Republican.

Q updated; quotes are not comparable. Q −3.6 pts since the previous forecast, for YES.

The research packet changed.

Snapshot: 2026-11-03T14:08:41.395351+00:00 · 2026-11-03T14:04:00+00:00.

Ask Q: How much of the Democratic early-ballot edge in NJ-02 comes from newly activated voters rather than regular high-turnout Democrats, and can Republican Election Day margins in Cape May, Ocean and Atlantic counties offset that edge?

Campaign cash

Van Drew reported $2.41 million raised and $894,792 cash on hand, while Mullock reported $960,948 raised and $105,400 cash with $110,000 in debt, per pre-general filings covering activity through October 14, 2026.

District lean

Trump won New Jersey's 2nd District by 12 points in 2024 and Van Drew won reelection in 2022 and 2024 with 58% of the vote, per the New Jersey Monitor.

Race ratings

Cook Political Report's NJ-02 race page, last updated October 30, 2026, lists the race rating as "Likely R".

Main caution

In the NJ-2 pre-Election Day vote as of November 2, 2026, 51,358 registered Democrats had cast ballots, versus 37,766 Republicans and 19,492 unaffiliated voters.

Points to YES

Republican Jeff Van Drew entered the final stretch with roughly $895,000 in cash while Democrat Zack Mullock reported about $105,000 plus $110,000 in debt.
[2026-10-14] Pre-general filings showed Van Drew with $894,792 cash on hand and Mullock with $105,400 cash and $110,000 in debt.
New Jersey's 2nd District leans strongly Republican, with Trump carrying it by double digits and Van Drew winning about 58% of the vote in 2024.
[2024-11-05] Trump won New Jersey's 2nd District by 12 points in 2024 and Van Drew won reelection with 58% of the vote.
Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball and independent race forecasts all still place Van Drew ahead in the final week.
[2026-10-30] Cook Political Report's NJ-02 race page listed the race rating as Likely Republican.

Points to NO

Registered Democrats returned substantially more early ballots than Republicans in New Jersey's 2nd District.
[2026-11-02] Pre-Election Day returns showed 51,358 registered Democrats, 37,766 Republicans and 19,492 unaffiliated voters had cast ballots in NJ-02.
The national environment favors Democrats, with the generic-ballot average near nine points and Cook projecting 12 to 25 Republican House seat losses.
[2026-11-02] Silver Bulletin's generic-ballot average stood at D +8.9, near the 2026-cycle high of D +9.2.
Democratic groups targeted the seat, with a national super PAC spending $1.5 million against Van Drew and the DCCC adding NJ-02 to its Districts in Play list.
[2026-10-22] Reporting described a $1.5 million Project 18 campaign against Van Drew and the DCCC's addition of the seat to its target list.

Research and information only. Not financial advice or a recommendation to trade. Markets involve risk, including loss of capital. Review venue rules and eligibility before trading.