Will the Republicans win the Vermont governor race in 2026?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenuePolymarket

Realized · held to resolution+19%$100 paper stake

Polymarket84¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES84¢ → 100¢

Signal endedNov 4

Forecast updated

Oct 2 forecast

Scott has won his last three reelections by landslide margins and retains crossover support, so a Republican victory in Vermont is highly likely.

Recent evidence shows a more competitive race: one poll placed Janoo ahead, Scott’s approval has fallen, and the national environment favors Democrats. Even so, a Republican victory remains highly likely because Scott has repeatedly won overwhelming mandates in heavily Democratic Vermont, retains meaningful crossover support, and leads in another recent poll. Janoo must quickly consolidate undecided voters and turn broader Democratic enthusiasm into a decisive break from Vermont’s long-standing reluctance to oust incumbent governors.

Points to YES

Scott enters the race with an exceptional record of landslide reelection victories.
As of September 28, Scott had won each of his three most recent reelection campaigns by at least 40 percentage points.
A recent statewide poll gives Scott a clear lead despite the difficult environment.
Polling conducted September 10-21 found Scott leading Janoo 44% to 34% among likely voters, with 16% undecided.
Scott still draws meaningful support from voters outside the Republican base.
Polling reported September 28 found that 40% of Democrats approved of Scott’s job performance.

Points to NO

Janoo has demonstrated a credible path to overtaking Scott.
A University of New Hampshire poll conducted September 17-21 placed Janoo six points ahead of Scott.
Scott’s standing has deteriorated substantially since his previous reelection campaign.
The September Vermont Public poll measured Scott’s approval at 45%, down from 60% in its 2022 poll.
The broader political environment is pushing voters toward Democrats.
On October 1, Cook Political Report described the national environment as grim for Republicans and said Democrats were gaining in gubernatorial races.

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