Will Bitcoin be at or above $78,500 on Aug 28?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake

Kalshi51¢ → 0¢

Our position · YES51¢ → 0¢

Signal endedAug 28

Forecast updated

Aug 25 forecast

Bitcoin has moved above the threshold on strong spot-fund inflows, so an August 28 price at or above $78,500 is likely.

Bitcoin enters the final days above the threshold after a powerful advance supported by large spot-fund inflows and improving trading activity. That cushion makes an above-threshold outcome more likely, but overbought conditions, nearby selling pressure, and recent liquidation-driven reversals leave meaningful uncertainty.

Points to YES

Trading above $80,000 provides a cushion over the threshold, allowing a moderate pullback while preserving the path to a YES outcome.
At 08:23 GMT on August 25, the Nasdaq Bitcoin Reference Price was $80,034.51.
Strong spot-fund inflows indicate fresh underlying demand that could absorb selling and keep Bitcoin above the threshold through the deadline.
U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin funds drew about $1.9 billion during the week ended August 21, their largest weekly inflow since October 2025.
The broad trend remains upward, increasing the chance that buyers defend pullbacks before August 28.
Bitcoin closed at $79,271.70 on August 24 after its biggest three-day rally since 2023 and stood above its 20-, 50-, and 200-day exponential moving averages.

Points to NO

Overbought momentum and concentrated selling interest just above the threshold raise the risk that profit-taking pushes Bitcoin below the required level.
On August 25, Bitcoin’s momentum gauge was near 78, while selling pressure was identified between $78,500 and $82,000.
Reliance on short liquidations makes the rally vulnerable to fading once forced buying subsides, potentially exposing the threshold before the deadline.
On August 24, $6.4 billion in leveraged short perpetual-futures positions had been liquidated since August 19, and the cited analysis warned that short squeezes tend to be short-lived.
Recent liquidation cascades show that leveraged positioning can produce abrupt declines large enough to erase the current cushion quickly.
On August 22, Bitcoin fell from about $78,000 toward $77,000 as more than $529 million of positions were liquidated in an hour, mostly longs.

Research and information only. Not financial advice or a recommendation to trade. Markets involve risk, including loss of capital. Review venue rules and eligibility before trading.