Will Bitcoin be at or above $78,500 on Aug 25?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake

Kalshi54¢ → 0¢

Our position · YES54¢ → 0¢

Signal endedAug 25

Forecast updatedAug 25

Aug 25 forecast

Bitcoin has traded above $78,500 throughout the available August 25 record, so an August 25 price at or above the threshold is likely.

Bitcoin has stayed above the threshold across the available August 25 data, including during its retreat from above $81,000. Strong recent fund inflows and upward momentum support another rebound, though the narrow cushion, profit-taking and overbought conditions leave meaningful uncertainty.

Points to YES

Bitcoin's uninterrupted trading above the threshold on August 25 makes an above-threshold daily observation likely unless selling intensifies.
Through 12:19 UTC on August 25, Coinbase Pro recorded a daily low of $78,649.40 and a high of $81,265.30, keeping the entire reported range above $78,500.
Repeated hourly readings above the threshold show support has held through intraday volatility, reducing the path needed for a YES outcome.
StatMuse's listed hourly data from midnight through 11:00 on August 25 never fell below $78,500, with the lowest intrahour reading at $78,715.63.
Large spot-fund inflows provide continuing demand that could absorb profit-taking and keep Bitcoin above the threshold.
On August 25, U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin funds recorded a further $337 million net inflow after their strongest weekly inflow in ten months.

Points to NO

The rapid retreat from the day's high leaves only a narrow cushion, making another selloff capable of pushing Bitcoin below the threshold.
At 12:19 UTC on August 25, Bitcoin stood at $78,933.87 after reaching $81,265.30 earlier in the day.
Overbought momentum and concentrated selling pressure near current prices increase the risk that profit-taking overwhelms the remaining cushion.
On August 25, Bitfire Research identified selling pressure from $78,500 to $82,000 and reported a momentum reading near 78, commonly viewed as overbought.

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