Will Rui Costa win the most votes in the 2026 Bahia Senate election?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenuePolymarket

Realized · held to resolution+20%$100 paper stake

Polymarket83¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES83¢ → 100¢

Signal endedOct 5

Forecast updated

Sep 24 forecast

Rui Costa holds a consistent double-digit lead in every major poll, so a win is highly likely.

Rui Costa has led every major opinion poll for the Bahia Senate seat since late August, with the most recent survey placing him at 46.3% against a fragmented field. While a substantial share of voters remain undecided, Costa's consistent first-choice lead, high name recognition from two gubernatorial terms, and the joint-ticket arrangement with Senator Wagner make a last-minute upset highly unlikely within the 11 days remaining.

Points to YES

Rui Costa leads in all major polls with a clear margin.
A Paraná Pesquisas survey from September 21–23, 2026, showed Costa at 46.3%.
Costa's strong electoral history in Bahia as a two-term governor.
He was elected in 2014 with 3.56 million votes and re-elected in 2018 with 5.1 million.
Costa runs on a joint ticket with incumbent Senator Jaques Wagner, consolidating PT support.
The campaign is coordinated with Wagner under a 'casadinha' arrangement.

Points to NO

High percentage of undecided voters introduces uncertainty.
A Futura Inteligência poll from September 16–19 found 52.5% undecided in the spontaneous question and 21.3% in the stimulated question.

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