US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenuePolymarket

Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake

Polymarket22¢ → 100¢

Our position · NO78¢ → 0¢

Signal endedAug 12

Forecast updated

Jul 17 forecast

A US-Iran ceasefire completed by July 31 is nearly impossible because ongoing US strikes mean the required 14-day halt needed to start by July 17.

US strikes are confirmed through at least July 16 with sustained operational tempo, so the required 14-day halt must start by July 17 to finish by July 31, making completion… Whether all US strikes on Iran’s territory cease by July 17 and remain halted through July 31. Confirmed consecutive-night strikes through July 16 with CENTCOM waves and bridge-targeting expansions (E1-E6) Tight calendar arithmetic requires strike-free start no later than July 17 for 14-day window to end by July 31

Points to NO

Confirmed consecutive-night strikes through July 16 with CENTCOM waves and bridge-targeting expansions (E1-E6)
Evidence
Tight calendar arithmetic requires strike-free start no later than July 17 for 14-day window to end by July 31
Evidence
No credible cessation, ceasefire enforcement, or diplomatic halt signals in current evidence
Evidence

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