Will SPD win the second-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenuePolymarket

Realized · held to resolution+25%$100 paper stake

Polymarket80¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES80¢ → 100¢

Signal endedSep 21

Forecast updated

Sep 6 forecast

Recent polls place the SPD far ahead of every party except the AfD, so an SPD second-place seat finish is likely.

Both recent Mecklenburg-Vorpommern polls rank the AfD first, the SPD second and the Left a distant third. The SPD’s substantial cushion over every smaller party makes a fall below second difficult, while its late rebound creates the main contrary path: overtaking the AfD and finishing first. Disagreement over the AfD-SPD gap and uncertainty in translating votes into seats leave meaningful uncertainty.

Points to YES

The SPD has a commanding advantage over the nearest party below it.
The September 3 poll placed the SPD at 32% and the third-placed Left at 11%.
Separate recent polling confirms the SPD’s second-place position and large cushion over third.
The September 2 poll placed the AfD first at 37%, the SPD second at 28% and the Left third at 11%.
The AfD has maintained enough support to remain the leading obstacle to an SPD first-place finish.
Polling through September 4 had placed the AfD above 30% throughout 2026 in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern.

Points to NO

The SPD’s late rebound creates a credible risk that it finishes first rather than second.
The September 3 poll showed the SPD gaining 3 points to 32%, only 3 points behind the AfD.
The size of the AfD’s lead over the SPD remains unsettled across pollsters.
On September 3, the two latest polls reported AfD leads of 9 points and 3 points over the SPD.
Threshold outcomes and compensatory mandates can make the seat ranking differ from simple vote-share estimates.
A September 4 analysis said between four and seven parties could clear the threshold and enter the Landtag.

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