Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenuePolymarket

Realized · held to resolution+178%$100 paper stake

Polymarket64¢ → 0¢

Our position · NO36¢ → 100¢

Signal endedAug 1

Forecast updated

Jul 12 forecast

Russia is very unlikely to capture Kostyantynivka by July 31, because the 19-day window is too short for slow infiltration tactics to produce verifiable control.

Urban combat friction and strict ISW mapping criteria severely restrict the pathway to a YES resolution within the remaining 19 days.

Points to NO

Russian forces remain restricted to the southwestern outskirts
Russian forces advanced in southwestern Kostyantynivka outskirts, July 11
ISW mapping strictly excludes infiltration areas
The shading must indicate 'Assessed Russian Control'... 'Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas' does not qualify.
Drone surveillance structurally prevents rapid maneuver
Ukrainian drone surveillance preventing Russian open-terrain navigation in Kostyantynivka

Points to YES

Putin claimed capture prematurely, heightening political pressure
ISW explicitly rejected Putin's July 3 claim of Kostyantynivka capture

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