Will Åsa Johansson be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Värmland?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenuePolymarket

Realized · held to resolution+19%$100 paper stake

Polymarket84¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES84¢ → 100¢

Signal endedNov 11

Forecast updated

Sep 9 forecast

Polling keeps the incumbent coalition in power with Johansson as its leading Social Democrat, so her formal election as the next Regional Board Chair is highly likely.

The latest survey projects the governing Social Democratic, Centre and Left coalition remaining in power, while alternative opposition coalitions appear difficult to assemble. Johansson is both the incumbent chair and the Social Democrats’ leading council candidate, leaving no supplied evidence of a serious internal successor. The race could tighten if smaller parties cross the threshold, but Johansson’s formal election as the next Regional Board Chair is highly likely.

Points to YES

The incumbent coalition is projected to retain control of the regional council.
A mid-August 2026 Novus poll projected the Social Democratic, Centre and Left coalition winning 40 seats and remaining in power.
Johansson enters the election as both incumbent chair and the Social Democrats’ leading regional candidate.
On June 26, 2026, SVT listed Åsa Johansson as the Social Democrats’ first name on the Region Värmland council ballot.
The clearest alternative governing coalition appears difficult to reconstruct.
On September 8, 2026, Nya Wermlands-Tidningen assessed that reviving the broad centre-right Värmlandssamverkan coalition was not very likely.

Points to NO

Threshold outcomes for smaller parties could make coalition arithmetic unexpectedly close.
On September 8, 2026, Nya Wermlands-Tidningen assessed that the election could be fairly close and depended heavily on which parties cleared the 3% threshold.

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