Will Ethereum be at or above $2,410 on Sep 4?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution+22%$100 paper stake

Kalshi82¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES82¢ → 100¢

Signal endedSep 4

Forecast updated

Sep 4 forecast

Ethereum is about $36 above the threshold with under eight hours remaining, so a $2,410-or-higher Ethereum price at 5 PM EDT is highly likely.

Ethereum’s settlement-basis price is about $2,446, leaving a modest cushion with little time remaining. Several September 4 observations were above $2,500, although published intraday snapshots conflict and lack exact capture times. The short horizon and current cushion outweigh the main downside risks: today’s range extended below the threshold, large holders have sold heavily, and another sharp move could erase the buffer before settlement.

Points to YES

Ethereum currently has a modest but meaningful cushion above the settlement threshold.
On September 4, Ethereum’s settlement-basis price was $2,445.9955 with 7.9 hours remaining before settlement.
Ethereum traded materially above the threshold earlier on settlement day.
A September 4 report placed Ethereum at $2,513.68.

Points to NO

Ethereum has already shown enough intraday volatility to cross below the threshold.
Ethereum’s reported September 4 intraday range was $2,389.30 to $2,523.23.
Heavy large-holder selling adds near-term supply pressure.
On September 4, Lookonchain reported that one whale had sold 167,855 ETH worth nearly $408 million over roughly five days.

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