Will Bitcoin be at or above $79,750 on Sep 7?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake

Kalshi56¢ → 0¢

Our position · YES56¢ → 0¢

Signal endedSep 7

Forecast updated

Sep 7 forecast

Bitcoin sits $544.827 above the strike with less than a day remaining, so a September 7 settlement at or above $79,750 is favored.

The settlement-basis price is $80,294.827, placing Bitcoin just 0.68% above the threshold with limited time remaining. Recent ETF inflows and trading above short-term moving averages provide support, but repeated threshold crossings and a rapid post-employment-report decline show that the cushion can disappear quickly. A technical downside call and one sharply conflicting September 7 quote add uncertainty. An above-threshold settlement is favored but remains exposed to an abrupt final-hours move.

Points to YES

Bitcoin currently has a small but meaningful cushion above the settlement threshold.
On September 7, the settlement-basis price was $80,294.827, or $544.827 above the $79,750 threshold.
Bitcoin remains above short-term trend measures that sit below the threshold.
On September 6, Bitcoin was above its 10-day and 20-day moving averages of $78,771 and $77,231.
Recent spot Bitcoin ETF inflows indicate renewed near-term demand.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs received $174.6 million of inflows on September 4 after receiving $730.8 million in the preceding session.

Points to NO

Bitcoin has recently crossed the threshold during abrupt, news-driven selling.
On September 4, Bitcoin fell from $81,300 to $78,600 within minutes after the August U.S. employment report.
A same-day technical assessment anticipated additional downside below the threshold.
Shortly after midnight on September 7 in the Eastern Eight time zone, an analyst identified a short-trade target range of $79,300 to $78,800.
A sharply divergent September 7 quote creates uncertainty about contemporaneous price reporting.
A CentralCharts quote dated September 7 listed BTC/USD at $62,738.90, far below both the threshold and other recent observations.

Research and information only. Not financial advice or a recommendation to trade. Markets involve risk, including loss of capital. Review venue rules and eligibility before trading.