Will Anthony DiLorenzo be the Republican nominee for NH-01?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution+28%$100 paper stake

Kalshi78¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES78¢ → 100¢

Signal endedSep 9

Forecast updated

Sep 6 forecast

Trump’s endorsement, major financial advantage and a late poll lead give DiLorenzo the strongest overall position, so his NH-01 Republican nomination is likely.

DiLorenzo enters the final days with Trump’s endorsement, backing from House Republican leaders and substantially greater campaign resources. One late poll gave him a sizable lead, but another put Noveletsky narrowly ahead with many voters undecided. Noveletsky’s established activist support and potential advantage in a low-turnout contest preserve a credible upset path. Overall, DiLorenzo’s combined institutional, financial and polling strengths make his nomination likely.

Points to YES

DiLorenzo has support from Trump and leading House Republicans, giving him unusually strong validation with primary voters.
On September 4, Trump and House Republican leaders led by Speaker Mike Johnson were reported as endorsing DiLorenzo.
DiLorenzo’s large financial advantage supports broader advertising and voter outreach through the final days.
By September 4, DiLorenzo had personally contributed nearly $2 million to his campaign.
A late Saint Anselm College poll showed DiLorenzo with a sizable lead, supporting a clear path to victory.
A Saint Anselm College poll released shortly before August 26 placed DiLorenzo substantially ahead.

Points to NO

Conflicting polling shows that Noveletsky remains capable of defeating DiLorenzo.
On August 26, a University of New Hampshire poll placed Noveletsky at 28% and DiLorenzo at 25%, with 38% undecided.
Noveletsky’s established activist support could be especially valuable if primary turnout is low.
On September 4, Dante Scala assessed that lower turnout would favor Noveletsky because activists know and like her.

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