US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenuePolymarket

Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake

Polymarket50¢ → 100¢

Our position · NO50¢ → 0¢

Signal endedNov 7

Forecast updated

Sep 20 forecast

The ceasefire is less likely than not, as ongoing low-level hostilities and unresolved diplomatic gaps leave a US strike more probable than not.

The ceasefire continues but remains fragile. Diplomatic openings exist—the UN General Assembly visas and Rubio's deal comments—yet the balance of evidence leans toward a US strike. Trump's signaled readiness to resume large-scale attacks and ongoing low-level hostilities make a military action more probable than not. The 43% probability reflects a real possibility that diplomacy succeeds, but history of escalation and unresolved grievances point to a strike as the more likely outcome before October 31.

Points to NO

Trump's stated willingness to resume large-scale airstrikes signals that the ceasefire may be ended by US action.
On September 17, President Trump said he has a 'big decision' over whether to resume large-scale attacks on Iran.
Continued low-level attacks by Iran undermine the ceasefire and risk a larger US response.
On September 9, Iran attacked 10 ships near the Strait of Hormuz and a US base in Jordan.
Escalation of the Houthi conflict could draw the US into a broader confrontation with Iran, increasing the risk of qualifying strikes.
On September 20, the US State Department warned that hostilities with Houthis could escalate rapidly after a missile attack on Riyadh.

Points to YES

Diplomatic engagement at the UN General Assembly opens a window for talks that could ease tensions and reinforce the ceasefire.
On September 17, the US granted visas to Iranian President Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Araghchi to attend the UN General Assembly.
The open-ended ceasefire extension provides a formal basis for continued calm, but its durability is untested.
On September 11, President Trump announced an open-ended extension of the US-Iran ceasefire.

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