Will CPI rise more than 0.2% in August 2026?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution+39%$100 paper stake

Kalshi72¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES72¢ → 100¢

Signal endedSep 11

Forecast updated

Sep 4 forecast

Energy and gasoline prices rebounded after July’s declines, so an August U.S. CPI increase above 0.2% is highly likely.

July’s energy decline held headline CPI to 0.1%, but oil and gasoline rebounded during August, removing that drag. Elevated service-sector input costs and a headline nowcast above the cutoff reinforce the case for acceleration. Falling apartment rents and moderate core estimates limit the upside, but they should not offset energy enough to keep headline CPI at or below 0.2%.

Points to YES

August’s rebound in oil and gasoline removed July’s strongest source of headline disinflation.
On September 3, TD Economics assessed that oil and gasoline had rebounded after July, leaving little additional disinflationary relief for headline CPI.
The Cleveland Fed’s headline nowcast places August CPI clearly above the 0.2% threshold.
On September 3, the Cleveland Fed nowcast estimated a 0.36% month-over-month increase in August headline CPI.
Service-sector pricing pressure remained elevated in August, supporting continued consumer-price gains.
On September 3, @livesquawk reported that the ISM services prices-paid index rose to 72.6 in August from 70.3.

Points to NO

Core inflation estimates remain moderate, making energy’s contribution central to clearing the headline threshold.
On August 31, Goldman Sachs forecast August core CPI inflation of around 0.2%.
Falling apartment rents point toward softer shelter pressure, although CPI housing measures typically respond with delays.
On September 2, August data showed U.S. apartment rents fell 0.03% from July to a national average of $1,751.

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