Will the average U.S. price of a Dunkin' medium cold brew for September 2026 be at least $4.46?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake

Kalshi80¢ → 0¢

Our position · YES80¢ → 0¢

Signal endedOct 1

Forecast updated

Sep 4 forecast

Higher 2026 benchmarks exceed the cutoff amid restaurant-price inflation, so a qualifying September Spice Data reading is likely.

Current evidence is sharply split: recent Dunkin-specific guides sit below $4.46, while other 2026 listings sit above it and broader cold-brew prices are rising. The higher readings and persistent restaurant-price pressure make a qualifying Spice Data figure more likely, but the missing controlling value and substantial location variation leave meaningful uncertainty.

Points to YES

A September menu listing places Dunkin's medium cold brew comfortably above the required price, although it is not the controlling national measure.
A September 2026 menu listing priced Dunkin's medium cold brew at $4.96.
An early-2026 national-average guide also places the exact Dunkin' drink above the threshold.
On March 16, 2026, a national-average menu table listed Dunkin's medium cold brew at $4.59.
Cold-brew prices across restaurants have continued rising, supporting the higher end of the conflicting Dunkin' estimates.
In June 2026, the median cold-brew price on Toast's platform was 3.7% higher than a year earlier.

Points to NO

A recent Dunkin-specific estimate places the drink materially below the threshold and cautions that local prices vary.
On August 13, 2026, PriceMyMeal listed Dunkin's medium cold brew at $3.99 and described its prices as approximate and location-dependent.
Another national menu reference puts the drink well below the required price.
When reviewed in May 2026, Menupedia listed a national-average price of $3.49 for Dunkin's medium cold brew.

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