Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 89.99 USD/Bbl on Sep 3, 2026?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution+43%$100 paper stake

Kalshi70¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES70¢ → 100¢

Signal endedSep 3

Forecast updated

Sep 3 forecast

October WTI is trading above $89.99 after settling above it twice, so an above-threshold September 3 settlement is likely.

October WTI entered September 3 around $90.75 after a $91.01 settlement and a strong three-session rise. Severe disruption to Strait of Hormuz traffic and falling U.S. inventories support prices. However, the cushion above $89.99 is less than one dollar, recent trading has crossed below the threshold, and recovering Gulf exports could quickly unwind part of the conflict premium. An above-threshold settlement is therefore the more likely outcome, but substantial intraday volatility leaves meaningful uncertainty.

Points to YES

October WTI remained above the threshold in the latest September 3 trading.
At 00:49 GMT on September 3, WTI futures traded at $90.80 per barrel.
The immediately preceding October-contract settlement provided a cushion above $89.99.
The October-delivery NYMEX crude contract settled at $91.01 per barrel on September 2.
Strong short-term momentum has carried crude decisively higher into settlement day.
The October-delivery front-month contract gained $7.61 over three consecutive sessions through September 2.

Points to NO

Recent intraday volatility has already carried WTI below the cutoff.
WTI traded between $88.97 and $92.29 per barrel on September 2, spanning both sides of $89.99.
Recovering Persian Gulf exports limit the scope for further oil-price gains.
On September 2, strategists cited an estimate that Gulf oil flows had recovered to roughly two-thirds of their prewar level.

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