Will Ethereum be at or above $2,450 on Aug 29?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake

Kalshi41¢ → 100¢

Our position · NO59¢ → 0¢

Signal endedAug 29

Forecast updated

Aug 29 forecast

Ethereum entered the final day below $2,450 after reversing sharply from above $2,500, so clearing the threshold at 5 p.m. is unlikely.

Ethereum is within striking distance of the threshold, but it enters the final day on the wrong side after a sharp reversal from above $2,500. Stretched momentum and softer short-term signals make further consolidation or downside more likely than a durable recovery by the cutoff. Strong fund inflows and the broader August rally keep a late rebound possible, but the positive demand backdrop has not prevented the latest drop below $2,450.

Points to NO

The latest reported selloff left Ethereum below the threshold after it opened above $2,500, making a durable recovery necessary before the cutoff.
On Aug. 28, ETH/USD was $2,428.69, down 3.26% after opening at $2,510.95 and trading as high as $2,534.24.
Stretched daily momentum and softening short-term indicators increase the risk that sellers cap rebound attempts during the remaining window.
On Aug. 28, daily RSI was 75.79 while hourly and 15-minute charts showed consolidation and flat-to-soft short-term momentum.
Persistent inflation and a cautious Federal Reserve backdrop can restrain risk appetite, reducing support for a rapid cryptocurrency rebound.
On Aug. 28, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said inflation had not meaningfully improved, while cited PCE inflation was running at 3.7%.

Points to YES

Sustained spot-ETF inflows provide a source of dip-buying that could help Ethereum recover the threshold despite weak short-term momentum.
As of Aug. 28, U.S. spot ETH ETFs had recorded $1.18 billion of net inflows across eight consecutive trading days.
The powerful August advance shows Ethereum can move rapidly when buyers return, preserving a live path to a late rebound.
From Aug. 19 through Aug. 21, ETH/USD rose from a $1,917.85 open to a $2,515.33 close through three consecutive daily gains.

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