Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenuePolymarket

Realized · held to resolution+39%$100 paper stake

Polymarket72¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES72¢ → 100¢

Signal endedNov 2

Forecast updated

Sep 23 forecast

Iliana Iotova commands around half of the vote with a fractured opposition, so her re-election is highly likely.

President Iliana Iotova enters the election with a large and stable base of support, a net positive trust rating, and a fractured opposition. While a first-round majority is unlikely, she is heavily favored to win the runoff, as most voters who do not back a candidate in the first round are expected to support her in the second. Historical incumbency advantages and the lack of a credible unified challenger reinforce this outlook.

Points to YES

Iliana Iotova holds a large and stable lead in polls and has a net positive trust index.
A Global Metrics survey from July 2026 found around half of respondents supporting Iotova and a net positive trust index of +31%.
The opposition is split among multiple candidates, reducing the chance of a single strong challenger.
Political analyst Ivo Indzhov stated on September 23 that the Kostadinov-Volgin ticket adds intrigue and splits the nationalist vote.
A large portion of voters from the GERB and DPS parties are expected to support Iotova in the second round.
Journalist Emilia Milcheva stated on September 23 that Kostadinov and Volgin serve as a vote reservoir for Iotova in a runoff and that a large portion of GERB and DPS voters will vote for Iotova.

Points to NO

A last-minute deal between GERB and the Movement for Rights and Freedoms could consolidate up to 700,000 voters behind a single opponent.
An analysis from September 23 assessed that GERB and DPS could channel support via a behind-the-scenes deal.

Research and information only. Not financial advice or a recommendation to trade. Markets involve risk, including loss of capital. Review venue rules and eligibility before trading.