Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenuePolymarket

Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake

Polymarket81¢ → 100¢

Our position · NO19¢ → 0¢

Signal endedOct 31

Forecast updated

Oct 27 forecast

YES: Q 25.8% · Market odds 22.5% at forecast

Polling outlier. One i24NEWS/Direct Polls survey put Likud at 26 seats, five ahead of Yashar.

Main caution: Final TV polls from all three networks put Eisenkot's Yashar two to three seats ahead of Likud.

Evidence and updates

Undecided voters. Nearly one-third of Israeli voters were undecided days before the vote, leaving Yashar's polling lead soft.

Late endorsement. President Trump endorsed Netanyahu on October 18, giving Likud a late boost with right-leaning voters.

Q updated; quotes are not comparable. Q −5.0 pts since the previous forecast, for YES.

The research packet changed.

Snapshot: 2026-10-27T13:17:44.527033+00:00 · 2026-10-27T13:13:00+00:00.

Ask Q: Do exit polls released on October 27 show Likud level with or ahead of Yashar, rather than the two-to-three seat deficit in the final TV surveys?

Polling outlier

An i24NEWS poll put Likud ahead with 26 seats, followed by Eisenkot’s Yashar with 21.

Undecided voters

A survey published days before the vote found nearly one-third of Israeli voters were still undecided.

Late endorsement

On October 18, President Donald Trump gave Benjamin Netanyahu his “Complete and Total Endorsement” for reelection as Israel’s prime minister.

Main caution

Eisenkot’s Yashar emerged as the largest party in all three final TV polls, with 22 seats in Kan 11, 23 in Channel 12, and 22 in Channel 13; Likud followed with 20, 21, and 19 seats respectively.

Points to NO

Every final TV poll released before the polling blackout put Eisenkot's Yashar ahead of Netanyahu's Likud.
October 23, 2026: Kan 11 had Yashar 22 to Likud 20, Channel 12 had 23 to 21, and Channel 13 had 22 to 19.
Averaged across the four most recent surveys, Yashar held a lead of slightly more than two seats over Likud.
October 25, 2026: the four-poll average was 22 seats for Yashar against 19.75 for Likud.

Points to YES

One recent survey put Likud clearly first, showing the polling lead is not uniform across pollsters.
October 25, 2026: an i24NEWS poll conducted by Direct Polls gave Likud 26 seats to Yashar's 21.
Roughly one-third of Israeli voters were still undecided days before the vote, leaving Yashar's polling edge soft.
October 26, 2026: a survey published days before the election found nearly one-third of voters undecided.
President Trump's October 18 endorsement of Netanyahu gives Likud a late argument for consolidating right-leaning voters.
October 18, 2026: Trump issued a complete endorsement of Netanyahu for reelection as prime minister.

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