Will Bitcoin be at or above $78,000 on Sep 8?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution+28%$100 paper stake

Kalshi78¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES78¢ → 100¢

Signal endedSep 8

Forecast updated

Sep 8 forecast

Bitcoin is already above $78,000 with less than a day remaining, so a September 8 settlement at or above $78,000 is likely.

At $78,950, Bitcoin has a modest cushion over $78,000 with less than a day to settle. The broader daily trend and recent fund inflows are supportive, but short-term momentum has weakened after concentrated selling near $80,000. A decline of about 1.2% would erase the cushion, leaving meaningful exposure to an abrupt final-hours move.

Points to YES

Bitcoin is currently above the settlement threshold, giving YES a modest but direct cushion.
On September 8, Bitcoin's settlement-basis price was approximately $78,950, compared with the $78,000 threshold.
Bitcoin's broader daily trend remains supportive despite weaker intraday momentum.
On September 7, Bitcoin remained above its key daily moving averages.
Recent spot Bitcoin ETF inflows provide a supportive demand backdrop.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a $730.8 million inflow on September 4.

Points to NO

Concentrated selling and bearish short-term momentum increase the risk of a sudden threshold breach.
On September 7, Bitcoin fell from roughly $80,200-$80,537 to $79,013 in one concentrated selling wave.
Repeated rejection near $80,000 has prevented Bitcoin from building a safer settlement cushion.
Bitcoin's attempt to break higher was turned back around $80,000 on September 7.

Research and information only. Not financial advice or a recommendation to trade. Markets involve risk, including loss of capital. Review venue rules and eligibility before trading.