Will Bitcoin be at or above $79,500 on Aug 31?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution+25%$100 paper stake

Kalshi20¢ → 0¢

Our position · NO80¢ → 100¢

Signal endedAug 31

Forecast updated

Aug 31 forecast

Bitcoin remains 1.62% below the strike with hours remaining, so a $79,500-or-higher August 31 settlement is unlikely.

At $78,230.94, Bitcoin needs a meaningful same-day rally to clear $79,500. Most August 31 observations place it below $78,200, while repeated rejection around $80,000 and hawkish monetary signals weigh against a late advance. A recent high near the threshold, strong August gains, and continued volatility keep the outcome live. One conflicting delayed index reading far above other price records adds uncertainty but does not outweigh the supplied settlement-basis price.

Points to NO

Most same-day price observations remain materially below $79,500.
On August 31, Bitcoin traded at $77,943.10, and its reported intraday range was $77,396.00 to $78,154.90.
Repeated rejection around $80,000 shows selling pressure immediately above the strike.
On August 30, the $80,000 level had rejected Bitcoin twice in late August while it traded near $78,000.
Tighter monetary-policy expectations create an unfavorable backdrop for a rapid cryptocurrency rally.
On August 28, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh said inflation remained too high and suggested rate increases might be needed in coming months.

Points to YES

Bitcoin recently traded close enough to the strike for an ordinary volatile move to clear it.
Bitcoin reached $79,380.30 on August 30 before closing at $77,639.00.
Strong recent fund inflows show that underlying demand has not disappeared.
Bitcoin ETF inflows reached $1.92 billion in the week ending August 29.

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