US Open WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina

No price history available.

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenuePolymarket

Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake

Polymarket56¢ → 0¢

Our position · YES56¢ → 0¢

Signal endedSep 12

Forecast updatedSep 12

Sabalenka has dropped one set all tournament and beat Rybakina at Indian Wells and Miami this spring, so a Sabalenka win is likely.

Sabalenka has been the more efficient player all tournament, holds the recent head-to-head edge, and faces an opponent coming off two three-set comebacks. The adapter puts her at 0.835 with research, blended to 0.765 against a 0.555 market. Rybakina's serve and her Australian Open final win over Sabalenka are the counterweight, and the adapter's tour-level track record is parity, so the edge is directional.

Points to YES

Sabalenka has dropped one set through six matches and leads the tournament with 25 break points converted.
Sabalenka is on a 20-match US Open winning streak, 31-2 here since 2022, and leads the head-to-head 10-7 including wins at Indian Wells and Miami this year.
Rybakina reached the final through two consecutive three-set comebacks and made 39 unforced errors against Gauff.

Points to NO

Rybakina beat Sabalenka in the 2026 Australian Open final from 3-0 down in the third set and is 18-6 against top-10 opponents since the 2025 US Open.
Rybakina has hit 42 aces and 143 winners this tournament; her serve can shorten sets against any returner.

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