Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenuePolymarket

Realized · held to resolution+69%$100 paper stake

Polymarket41¢ → 0¢

Our position · NO59¢ → 100¢

Signal endedAug 4

Forecast updated

Jun 29 forecast

Strait of Hormuz traffic will likely stay below the 60-ship threshold through July 31 because slow mine clearance and wary maritime insurers bottleneck transits.

Physical clearance of 80 naval mines requires 40-50 days, pushing completion into August. Maritime insurers will block the unescorted throughput required to reach 60 transits per day until full clearance is certified.

Points to NO

Physical clearance requires 40-50 days
Industry experts estimated safe mine clearance requires 40-50 days, June 25
80 active naval mines constrain flow
IMO estimated 80 naval mines remain in Strait of Hormuz, June 29

Points to YES

500-ship backlog creates massive commercial pressure
Over 500 ships remain backlogged waiting to transit, June 25

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